Elections, Elections, Elections!

2022 Delaware's House Elections

In 2022, incumbent Lisa Blunt Rochester faced re-election for the Delaware District at Large's lower chamber seat. This position is highly contested as the Delaware District at Large only has one representative in the lower chamber of Congress. 

Aside from Rochester running for re-elections, 5 other candidates competed for the House of Representatives position. Rochester's strongest opponent was Lee Murphy, a Republican politician who had previously ran for her position. The 2022 elections would the Murphy's 3rd attempt at securing Delaware's House seat. Other candidates running for Delaware's lower chamber congressional seat were Cody McNutt (Libertarian Party), David Rogers (Non Partisan Party), Scott Walker (Independent), and Edward Shilkas (Independent). One candidate, Republican Christopher Hill, was either withdrawn or disqualified from the election as he did not appear on the ballot.

The primaries took place on September 13th. Although the Democratic primaries were cancelled, Rochester moved forward as the party's candidate. Murphy managed to win the Republican primaries.

Results of the 2022 House of Representative Elections

Results for the Delaware District at Large House
of Representative Elections

The election took place on November 8th 2022. Rochester won re-election by 178,416 votes securing her a third-term as Delaware's House Representative. Murphy secured 138,201 votes loosing once again to the incumbent. 

    Rochester's victory in this election may be attributed to the Democratic party's dominance in Delaware as they hold control of the state's legislature as well as the governor position.

    Additionally Rochester's re-election could be as a result of the incumbent advantage. Rochester has been Delaware's House representative since 2017. As someone who previously served 2 terms, Rochester has the recall advantage as her constituents easily recognize her on the ballot from her previous terms in office.

    Redistricting can also explain Rochester's victory. Since the Democratic Party controls the state's legislature, the new district passes in 2022 may have been created in a way that benefits the Democratic Party. The redistricting lines were overwhelmingly supported by the state's House of representatives with a 40-1 vote in favor of the new lines. However passing the new districts through the Senate was much harder "with all 14 Democrats in favor and all seven Republicans against" the new district lines (Ballotpedia). There weren't many significant changes to redistricting as voting patterns remained consistent.

Delaware Party Control

Lisa's 2024 Comeback?

Since her debut in 2017, Rochester has managed to stave of the competition and maintain her office as Delaware's representative in the House. However, Lisa won't be coming back for another term. Rochester has her eyes set on a bigger prize, the senate. Rochester will be running against Pamela brown in Democratic primaries which are set to take place September 10th of this year.

Predictions?

Rochester has a good chance of winning the senate seat. This is mainly due to her experience serving as
Delaware's House Representative for 3 terms. Additionally, her incumbent position as House Representative means that the public is more familiar with Rochester. This gives Lisa a better chance at the polls because people will have an easier time recalling her name and her previous work as House Representative.  

    Democrats have held Delaware's senate seat since 2009, this in addition to state voters taking a more Democratic lean in politics gives Rochester higher chances in winning Delaware's Senate race. The former senator, Tom Carper, endorsed Rochester when announcing his retirement further raising her chances of winning the race.

    Amongst the 4 people who have declared their candidacy for Delawares' Senate seat, Rochester has the biggest campaign budget. Lisa has a combined $2.3 million in her war chest for the Senate race. These resources give her a better chance of winning the election than all the other candidates. So far, Republican Eric Hansen is the strongest opponent Rochester is competing against. There is also a lack of information on the campaign challenges Rochester has faced indicating she is well equipped for the senate race. Based on these factors, the election looks safe for Rochester, however its anyone's game in the end. 

Delaware Senate race campaign finance budget 

Delaware's 2020 Presidential Election voting Map 

Delaware's 2022 Presidential Election Breakdown

The 2020 Presidential Election saw Joe Biden win Delaware's popular vote. An overwhelming 58% of the constituency chose to vote for Biden as the state leans more towards the democratic party. This voting pattern indicates that Delawareans are democratic leaning which gives Rochester a better chance at getting elected to the Senate

The future?

Based on the information I've found, it looks like Lisa is set on her way to becoming Delaware's next Senator! With her previous experience in public office, strong party support, as well as endorsements from the former Senator Thomas Carper, victory seems in sight for our girl Lisa. As a Senator Rochester hopes to work on “passing legislation to bring American manufacturing jobs home and spur agricultural production, leading the charge to lower seniors’ health care costs, working to create safer communities, and expanding access to cleaner air and water.” If she wins the Senate race, she would make history as Delaware's first Woman of color Senate representative, paving the way for those who will come after her.